Reuters carried the new forecasts from Citi. In Summary:
- Citigroup raised its 2023 global economic growth forecast to 2.4%, from 2.2 previously
- citing "solid" performance in the United States, euro area and China
- said it expects a U.S. recession in Q4 2023 (was previously forecast Q3)
- "Our outlook envisions that the acute financial stresses, which last month triggered pressures on both sides of the Atlantic, will continue to recede"
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Citi cut its global economic growth forecast for 2024 to 2.1%, from 2.5% expected previously
- "While the acute phase of the banking tensions appears to be abating, we continue to see chronic challenges associated with higher interest rates and, more broadly, the implications of this episode for bank assets, deposits and funding, and bank margins"
- could lead to a tightening of credit conditions, including the possibility of a "credit crunch"
