Via Deutsche ICYMI.

On rampant inflation:

  • "It is now clear that price stability...is likely to only be achieved through a restrictive monetary policy stance that meaningfully dents demand"

and thus:

  • "We no longer see the Fed achieving a soft landing. Instead, we anticipate that a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy will push the economy into a recession"

Deutsche Bank says on timing & extent:

  • there is "considerable uncertainty" on timing
  • but expects GDP contraction during Q4 2023 and in Q1 2024
  • expects a "mild recession" ... unemployment peaking above 5% in 2024
deutsche bank