US first quarter growth was flat and the Atlanta Fed tracker for Q2 is currently at 0.0% so it will need to be a strong second half just to get to 2.9%.
In any case, these forecasts offer a sense of where the official consensus is.
- 2023 1.7% vs 2.3% in April
- 2024 +0.8%
- 2025 +1.7%
- 2026 +2.1%
As for monetary policy, they called for an 'assertive and rapid' withdrawal of stimulus.
In her comments, Georgieva also hints an global frustration with the intensity of US domestic demand and how it's boosting prices everywhere. She said misjudgements by the Fed will result in negative outward spillovers to the global economy.
