Last month the People's Bank of China were in a rate cutting mood:

cut repo rates on July 22:

On the same day they cut LPRs:

Then they followed up three days later with a surprise, shock, cut to their Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate:

Today its Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting day again.

Reuters survey of 37 analysts shows all expect both one- and five-year LPRs to be left on hold, currently

  • 3.35%
  • and 3.85%

respectively.

Analysts cite shrinking interest margins at lenders as a key constraint discouraging commercial banks from further lowering the lending benchmark rates. The People's Bank of China is also wary that even lower interest rates may weaken the yuan further and spur capital outflows.

pboc People's Bank of China 12 January 2024  2