Snippet commentary from JP Morgan on the US benchmark S&P500 index.
- We believe the market is approaching a bifurcation, at which point stocks risk seeing a more accelerated leg of the bear market that is associated with falling earnings expectations and break in correlation from interest rates
- We ultimately expect a H1 2023 bear market bottom.
- The realised inflation trajectory into early 2023 and the nature in which the forward rate curve reshapes to it will likely dictate the timing and level of the low.
- At the positive end of the risk spectrum ... rapidly falling inflation data leads to further expectations of eases in the second half of the year and helps the S&P 500 bottom near the 3491 Oct trough
