- The disinflationary process is well on track
- Manufacturing has continued to contract
- Services activity showed an uptick in August but latest data is more sluggish
- Business are increasing investment slowly
- Housing investment continues to fall
- Savings rate is well above the pre-pandemic period (about 3 percentage points)
- Labor market remains resilient
- We expect the economy to strengthen over time
- Exports should contribute to the recovery
- Wage pressures in the eurozone remain strong
- Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, in part due to energy base effects
- Inflation should then decline to target in 2025
- Risks to growth tilted to the downside
- We are not pre-commiting to a particular rate path
The euro is down on the day but that's more of a result of a strong US dollar than anything in the ECB decision or this statement so far. The market is fully pricing in another 25 bps from the ECB in December.