Lagarde May 4
  • Incoming information broadly supports medium-term outlook that we formed at our previous meeting
  • We will continue to follow a data-dependent approach
  • Private domestic demand, especially consumption, is likely to remain weak
  • Business and consumer confidence have improved but are lower than pre-war
  • Manufacturing sector is working through a backlog of orders but prospects worsening
  • Government should roll back energy support measures promptly as energy crisis fades
  • Price pressures remain strong
  • Inflation is still being pushed up but the gradual pass through of previous energy price rises
  • Lagarde no longer says growth risks are to the downside

The market is pricing in 43 bps of hiking in September and then coming down afterwards.