• I am not convinced we are at Max employment
• Inflation is too high
• If markets are right and that inflation will fall quickly, one would imagine rates could normalize
• If high inflation is a more embedded, rates will need to stay high for longer
• Data is driving my policy expectations
• I am now on the more hawkish and of Fed policy spectrum
• Not seeing evidence of a crash in consumer spending or slower in services side of economy
• Once this period of high inflation ends, we will be back in a low inflation, low rate environment
• Inflation is coming down, but it's pretty darn persistent.
• That means we will have to keep at it for an extended period
• Inverted yield curve put real pressure on banks