Federal Reserve Governor Kugler speaking in Q&A now
- We're at a place where we don't want labour market to weaken further
- Makes sense to shift attention to employment mandate.
- Inflation measures excluding housing are near 2%, but that's not what we target.
- We are making very good progress, but not at 2% yet.
- I don't see that we will overshoot on inflation.
- It will still take us some time to get to 2% inflation.
- We have begun to recalibrate rates
- we need to continue normalizing rates
- Maybe some Fed policy makers would be willing to move expected 2025 rate cuts forward to 2024, or vice versa, depending on data
- We don't pay a whole lot of attention to the neutral rate because there is a lot of uncertainty about it
- below 100K monthly job gain would be 'very low', must be mindful of potential downward revisions.
- Breakeven number for monthly job gains is anywhere from 100K to 240K.
- Policy is restrictive.
- With disinflation, we need to cut even to just keep where we are in terms of restriveness.
Kugler spoke earlier:
Its not just me picking up on the new script, is it?