Powell July 15
- It's very hard to know what the economy is going to do
- I have always felt there was a pathway to getting inflation back to 2% without the kind of pain that has been typical
- A hard landing scenario isn't a likely scenario
- I am very happy doing this job
- Will stay in office until May of 2026
- When the Fed gets confidence in inflation it will be time to move
- The eurozone went through a significant period of lower growth, is in a different position than the US
- There are little differences in timing between global central banks but when the history is written, it will be about the commonalities in policy
- The Fed meeting is usually over by 11 am before the decision
- Fed has the authority it needs, Fed Reserve Act is in a 'fine place'
- I'm worried 'over time' about the levels of US deficits but not the Fed's job to advise policy
Powell has highlighted the improvement in CPI and said they're getting data that makes them more confident 'lately'.
Goldman Sachs was talking about a July rate cut today and those odds got up to 13% before Powell but have sank to 6% since Powell spoke. If he wanted to put it on the table, it pretty much had to be today with the blackout hitting Friday.