- I expect 25 basis point hikes to start, and more increases in succession than earlier thought
- In December had expected 4 rate hikes in 2022; since then inflation has been more intense than expected
- later this year will have a better idea of if it rates need to get just to neutral or higher than that
- if we hike in 25 basis point increments, for three meetings in a row, and find it's not fast enough, we can raise rates more quickly
- May need not to pause on rate hikes when we make a change in balance sheet policy
- Prefer not to overshoot on rate hikes, or give wrong signal; will know more by June on the geopolitical environment
