New York Fed survey shows

Inflation

  • Median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% (one-year) and 2.8% (five-year).
  • Three-year median inflation expectations increased from 2.3% in July to 2.5%.
  • Disagreement among respondents on inflation expectations widened at all three horizons.
  • Inflation uncertainty remained unchanged for one-year and declined for three- and five-year horizons.
  • Median home price growth expectations increased to 3.1% from 3.0%.
  • Year-ahead expected price changes:
    • Gas: Increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.6%
    • Rent: Increased by 0.2 percentage point to 7.3%
    • Medical care: Increased by 0.4 percentage point to 8.0%
    • Food: Decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 4.4%
    • College education: Decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 5.9%

Labor Market

  • Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth rose to 2.9% from 2.7%, notably for households earning less than $50,000 annually.
  • Mean unemployment expectations increased to 37.7% from 36.6%.
  • Mean perceived probability of job loss in the next 12 months fell by 1.0 percentage point to 13.3%.
  • Mean probability of voluntarily leaving a job in the next 12 months decreased to 19.1% from 20.7%.
  • Mean perceived probability of finding a job if current job lost decreased slightly to 52.3%.

Household Finance

  • Median expected household income growth increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.0%.
  • Perceptions of credit access improved compared to a year ago, with more respondents expecting easier credit conditions.
  • Probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months rose by 0.3 percentage point to 13.6%, the highest since April 2020.
  • Median expected year-ahead change in taxes at current income levels declined to 3.9%.
  • Median expected growth in government debt decreased to 9.1% from 9.3%.
  • Mean perceived probability that savings account interest rates will be higher in 12 months increased by 1.5 percentage points to 26.6%.
  • Perceptions of current financial situations slightly deteriorated; however, optimism remains higher than a year ago.
  • Mean perceived probability of higher U.S. stock prices in 12 months remained unchanged at 39.3%.