NY Fed President Williams is speaking and comments are starting to trickle in.
- The economy is facing unacceptable high inflation
- Inflation is moving gradually in the right direction
- Expects economy to continue to grow this year
- There are lag effects for central bank policy. It does take a while to feel the impact of policy.
- Do need to monitor economic feedback from Fed's actions
- We don't know what the effects would be if the US default because it has never happened before
- Current banking situation is nothing like the 2008 banking crisis
- We are watching is CRE (commercial real estate) closely and the risks it poses to banks
- Banking system is sound/resilient
Williams is speaking at an event organized by the University of the Virgin Islands
Williams last spoke on May 9th and said a lot. Below are his comments from his prepared remarks and Q&A.
- He is confident US central bank is on right path to lower inflation to 2% target
- Williams acknowledges the issue of high inflation, which disproportionately affects those who can least afford higher prices for food, shelter, and transportation.
- The Federal Reserve is committed to bringing inflation down, with price stability being essential for the economy to reach its full potential and sustain maximum employment over the long term.
- Imbalances between demand and supply persist, leading to high inflation and a tight labor market; some signs of gradual cooling in demand for labor and goods/commodities are present.
- Job growth has been robust, with unemployment rate at a historically low level of 3.4%; labor force participation has rebounded, helping to alleviate some labor market imbalances. Projects unemployment rate to rise to 4% – 4.5% this year
- Inflation remains too high, but has moderated from a 40-year high of 7% to 4.2%; various measures of longer-run inflation expectations remain well anchored at levels consistent with the Fed's 2% longer-run goal.
- Core services excluding housing still show persistent inflation due to imbalances in overall supply and demand; it will take the longest to bring down.
- it will take time for the Fed rate hike's to bring economy back into balance
- Williams expects inflation to decline to around 3-1/4% this year before returning to the longer-run goal of 2% over the next two years; real GDP growth is expected to be modest this year, picking up somewhat next year.
- Monitoring the totality of the data and its implications for the achievement of the Fed's goals is crucial.
Q&A comments:
- The Fed has not said it's done raising rates
- Fed estimating incredible progress on monetary policy
- Fed needs to be data dependent with monetary policy
- Fed will raise rates if needed
- Does not see any reason to cut rates thisyear
- We are not seeing a wage price spiral today
- Fully confident US can get inflation back down to 2%
- Structural shifts will not impair Fed work to hit inflation target
- Recession not in baseline forecast
- Economy has risks to both the up and down side
- Sees signs of further tightening of credit; expects it to affect economic growth
- Tighter credit may blunt how far Fed goes with rate hike's
- Does not see tighter credit knocking economy totally off course
- Wage growth has stabilized at a high level. Wage data suggests labor market is still very strong.
- Banks are sound and resilient and quite strong. Acute phase of stress is about over