Reserve Bank of New Zealand
- says more tightening needed
- says also agreed to commence the gradual reduction of the reserve bank’s bond holdings under the large scale asset purchase (LSAP) programme
- agreed it remains appropriate to continue reducing monetary stimulus
- some short-term economic disruption is expected given the current growing covid-19 health challenge.
- says economic capacity pressures have continued to tighten
- headline CPI inflation is well above the reserve bank’s target range, but will return towards the 2 percent midpoint over coming years
Forecasts ....
- RBNZ sees official cash rate at 1.49% in June 2022 (pvs 1.51%)
- RBNZ sees official cash rate at 2.57% in March 2023 (pvs 2.3%)
- RBNZ sees twi nzd at around 71.6% in March 2023 (pvs 75.1%)
- RBNZ sees annual cpi 3.2% by march 2023 (pvs 2.9%)
- RBNZ sees official cash rate at 2.84% in June 2023 (pvs 2.4%)
- RBNZ sees official cash rate at 3.35% in March 2025
RBNZ minutes:
- committee also affirmed that it was willing to move the OCR in larger increments if required over coming quarters
- OCR is expected to peak at a higher level than assumed at the November statement
- sales of the bank’s LSAP bond holdings may put some upward pressure on longer-term interest rates
- many members saw this as a finely balanced decision whether to move the OCR up by 25 or 50 basis points
- committee agreed that higher interest rates were consistent with house prices becoming more sustainable
- impulse to growth from fiscal support is now ebbing and will wane
- committee reached a consensus not to reinvest the proceeds for any upcoming LSAP maturities
RBNZ says
- says committee agreed that further removal of monetary policy stimulus is expected over time
- says headline cpi inflation is well above the reserve bank’s target range, but will return towards the 2 percent midpoint over coming years
- employment is now above its maximum sustainable level
- says broad range of economic indicators highlighting that the New Zealand economy continues to perform above its current potential.
- says managed sales of bond holdings, in addition to not investing the proceeds of maturities, were most consistent with achieving their mandate over time
- says intends to commence bonds sales in July
Headlines summary above is via Reuters
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The hike was as expected although some had been tipping 0.5%. The statement, minutes, and forecasts are all leaning more hawkish, the jump in NZD/USD reflecting this.
Governor Orr is up next, at 0200 GMT. The guy is a man of action, not waffle like some other central bankers.
