Powell
  • Demand remains very strong, buoyed by healthy household balance sheets
  • We still see rapid economic growth
  • Recent improvement in labor market has narrowed difference across classes and races
  • We think labor market will continue to improve
  • The pandemic has pushed people out of the labor market, unclear when they will return
  • Bottlenecks have been longer and stronger than anticipated
  • Inflation likely to run above 2% goal "well into next year"
  • Price increases have broadened
  • Wages have also risen briskly
  • We expect inflation to fall close to our goal next year
  • We will watch carefully to see if economy is moving in line with expectations
  • Notes that dots are about 50 bps above Sept forecasts for 2022 year end