- A couple of weeks ago, we thought we would have to raise terminal rate
- We could think of the banking turmoil as a rate hike, or perhaps more than that
- Some firming refers to our policy rate. I would focus on the words 'may' and 'some'
- It's possible banking issues could have minimal effect or that it could result in significant tightening, we just don't know
- We don't know how significant or sustained this period of credit tightening will be but we think it's quite real
- We don't yet see progress on core services inflation excluding housing
- Disinflation is absolutely occurring
- It would be inappropriate to offer views on needed changes due to SVB
- These aren't weaknesses that are broad through the banking system
- At the end of the day, we will bring inflation down to 2%, no one should doubt that
- Doesn't see similarities to concentration at SVB to commercial real estate at other banks
- If we have to raise rates higher, we will
- Right now we see the likelihood of credit tightening, also notes labor market
- It's hard to see how bank stresses would have improved the likelihood of a soft landing
- We haven't talked about changing balance sheet implementation
The market has turned during Powell's press conference in part because he's stayed hawkish but moreso because Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said there would be no changes to deposit insurance.