Preview: RBA monetary policy meeting today. Here's an outlier call for a 25bp rate hike.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meet on Tuesday, 2 May 2023.

• statement due at 2.30pm local time, which is 0430 GMT and 0030 US Eastern time

Last month the RBA left its cash rate unchanged after 10 consecutive rate hikes.

The consensus expected is for another hold decision, leaving the cash rate at 3.6%

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Australia's Commonwealth Bank of Australia is tipping a 25bp rate hike, saying it's a line ball call. In brief:

• We retain our call for the RBA to increase the cash rate by 25bp to 3.85% at the May Board meeting (our forecast for the peak in the cash rate).
• We ascribe a 55% chance to a 25bp rate increase and a 45% probability to no change (we consider the risk of any other move immaterial).
• Governor Lowe will deliver a speech at the RBA Board dinner on Tuesday 2 May. And an updated set of economic forecasts will be published on Friday in the May Statement on Monetary Policy(SMP).
• We expect the RBA to retain their forecast for headline and underlying inflation to only return to the top of the target band by mid-2025 despite the Q1 23 CPI printing a little softer than the RBA’s implied profile from the February SMP.
• The RBA considers the stronger-than-anticipated lift in population growth to be inflationary and we expect this factor to offset the slightly lower starting point for the RBA’s inflation profile.
• We expect the RBA to leave their forecast profile for the unemployment rate unchanged.

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Earlier previews:

• RBA meet this week - preview - on hold again for the 2nd month in row, AUD vulnerable

• Westpac forecasts no change in RBA cash rate (previously at +25bp rate hike)

• ANZ say any AUD pop on the RBA decision today is likely to be short-lived

After the policy announcement Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe will be speaking later, at 9.20pm Sydney time.

• This is 1120 GMT
• and 7.20am US Eastern time

You can listen live here when the time comes.