RBA Governor Bullock warned on inflation today, market pushed rate hike forecasts later

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock spoke in parliament. She didn't add a lot to what she said earlier in the week but that hasn't stopped markets from pushing rate cut expectations out further.

ICYMI:

• RBA Bullock: Recent inflation developments are encouraging, some way to go to meet target
• RBA Bullock: If consumption slows quicker than expected will be opportunity to cut rates

And make sure you mix in this bombshell forecast for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:

• ANZ are expecting the RBNZ to hike its cash rate in February and in April, to 6%

As an aside, if ANZ are correct and that's what we get from the RBNZ it should trigger a wider rethink of expectations for other DM central banks. Anyway, back to the RBA:

• the probability of a rate cut from the RBA in May has dropped from around 50% last week to around 20 now
• September is still seen as the the most likely month for the first rate cut
• UBS to now expect the first rate cut from the RBA in November, rather than August.
• Capital Economics are tipping August for the first cut, from May