ING on the Reserve Bank of Australia statement due today, a +25bp rate hike is expected:

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will almost certainly raise the cash rate a further 25bp to 3.35% later today. The recent run of much higher-than-expected inflation means that today’s decision is firmly in the bag. Larger hikes do not seem probable, though the inflation story does likely keep the RBA hiking for longer than previously thought. We now see the cash rate rising to 4.1% before it peaks.

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RBA statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time,

  • which is 0330 GMT
  • and 10.30pm US ET

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Earlier previews here:

RBA rate hike expected today - preview

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ING say its in the bag. I say it's a no brainer. ING is more polite than me.

rba cash rate cpi wrap

If you are tipping no rate hike, what part of

  • runaway inflation,
  • the lowest unemployment rate for half a century,
  • and a negative real cash rate

do you not understand?

(If your argument is the RBA is relying on its forecasts (that inflation will fall) and not on data, forecasts that have proved woefully inept in the past but still they rely on them, then I concede the point).