National Australia Bank on the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting today, Tuesday, 7 February 2023:

  • The RBA is expected to deliver another 25bp increase to take the Cash Rate to 3.35%, an outcome expected by almost everyone surveyed by the main media outlets (a couple are picking no change, no-one a 50-point increase).
  • Money markets have about 20bps priced.
  • We expect the RBA to keep similar guidance to the December meeting and keep a hawkish bias given domestic inflation pressures, but also acknowledge the improved global inflation backdrop.
  • Near-term wages and underlying inflation forecasts need to be revised higher in Friday’s SoMP but we may get a hint of this in the Statement today.

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RBA statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time,

  • which is 0330 GMT
  • and 10.30pm US ET

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Earlier:

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The rate rise cycle so far from the RBA:

rba rate hike December 2022