Reserve Bank of Australia's Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP)
Summary Headlines via Reuters, bolding is mine:
- Board's priority is to return inflation to target
- Board expects further increases in interest rates will be needed
- Board mindful of rise in interest rates already made, policy acts with a lag
- Considerable uncertainty about outlook and level of rates needed to meet objectives
- Inflation likely to have peaked at end of 2022, but labour and service costs rising
- Domestically sourced inflation, wages growth both picking up
- Liaison suggests firms expect wage growth to stabilise around 4% in coming quarters
- Closely watching how quickly falls in global goods prices passed on by local business
- RBA revises up forecasts for core inflation, wage growth and GDP, unemployment outlook little changed
- Trimmed mean CPI seen at 4.3% y/y end 2023. 3.1% end 2024, 2.9% June 2025
- CPI seen at 4.8% y/y end 2023, 3.2% end 2024, 3.0% June 2025
- GDP seen at 1.6% y/y end 2023, 1.6% end 2024, 1.7% June 2025
- Wage growth seen at 4.2% y/y end 2023, 4.0% end 2024, 3.8% June 2025
- Unemployment seen at 3.8% end 2023, 4.3% end 2024, 4.4% June 2025
- Forecasts based on technical assumption cash rate will peak at 3.75%, ease to 3% by June 2025
- Forecast population growth revised higher to annual 1.5% due to faster migration
- Risks to global economy have abated in recent months as China reopens
More:
- headline CPI is forecast at 6.7% by June 2023, up from the RBA's previous forecast of 6.3%
- trimmed mean CPI forecast is at 6.2% by the middle of this year, compared with a previous forecast of 5.4%
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The SoMP outlines the Bank's evaluation of the domestic and global economies, as well as the prognosis for Australian inflation and output growth.
- There are also a few boxes released on certain topics of particular interest
- There is a SoMP released four times a year
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This (below) is the path of RBA rate hikes so far in this cycle:
