A snippet from RBC, responding to Thursday's accelerating core inflation in the US data.

more to come

  • At 8.2% year over year the inflation rate is still very high – the highest since 1982 aside from this year – but was nearly a full percentage point below its recent peak in June.
  • The closely-watched “core” CPI measure, which strips out more volatile food and energy items accelerated to 6.6% year on year, or 0.6% on a one month seasonally adjusted basis from August. That’s unchanged from the pace in the prior month but was triple the ~0.2% rate in years pre-pandemic.

RBC's projection for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC):

  • Fed’s job is not done
  • still broad-based inflation pressure calls for more rate hikes
  • we expect the Fed Funds rate to rise to 4.5% - 4.75% range by early 2023
US core CPI yy