RBNZ's own preferred inflation model 3.6% y/y (prior 4.2%) for Q2 2024

Earlier today we had the official CPI data from NZ:

• New Zealand Q2 CPI 0.4% q/q (expected 0.5%) & 3.3% y/y (expected 3.4%)
• ANZ forecast an RBNZ interest rate cut in November (previously forecasting February 2025)
• NZD/USD remains higher after the lower than expected NZ inflaiton data

Now this from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:

You can see the clear disparity between tradable and non-tradable inflation in the final four columns.

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The Bank on its own model:

• We created the sectoral factor model. It estimates the common component of inflation in the CPI basket, the tradable basket, and the non-tradable basket, based upon separate factors for the tradable and non-tradable sectors. The data excludes GST.