Justin had the breaking on the April meeting minutes here:
RBA minutes show strong case to pause and reassess need for tightening at future meetings
A recap now via ANZ:
The Board appears to have spent some time considering the case for a rate hike, reflected in the length of that discussion in the Minutes. On the decision itself, it notes that
- Members recognized the strength of both sets of arguments, but, on balance, agreed that there was a stronger case to pause at this meeting and reassess the need for further tightening at future meetings.
On the length of any such pause the word ‘month’ as opposed to ‘months’ is worthy of note. Specifically, it states:
- Over the coming month, members observed that they would receive another quarterly reading on inflation, additional monthly readings on the labor market, household spending and business conditions, and further information on developments in the global economy and financial markets.
On this:
- The staff were also due to present a full set of updated forecasts at the following meeting.
ANZ says this suggests that the decision to pause was a relatively close one –with a case able to be made for both an increase in interest rates and a pause. It further suggests that the May meeting is live – with the Board in a position to be persuaded either way based on the balance of the data and the updated set of forecasts they will receive at that meeting (and which will be published in the Statement on Monetary Policy a few days later).
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The events ANZ refer to are the next meeting and the SOMP, both are boxed in the pic below:
While both are more than a week away if you are noting in your diary the times referred to are:
2.30pm AEST on 2 May is
- 0430 GMT on 2 May
- 0030 US Eastern time on 2 May
11.30am AEST on 5 May is
- 0130 GMT on 5 May
- 2130 US Eastern time on 4 May