Reserve Bank of New Zealand

The Bank sees the cash rate ahead at:

  • 5.61% in September 2024 (prior 5.6%)
  • 5.54% in June 2025 (prior 5.33%)
  • 5.4% in September 2025 (prior 5.15%)
  • 2.99% in June 2027

That 5.4% in September 2025 is a full 25bp higher than its previous forecast.

Forecasts inflation at 2.6% y/y by June 2025.

Statement:

  • Monetary policy needs to be restricted
  • Restrictive monetary policy has reduced capacity pressures in the New Zealand economy and lowered consumer price inflation
  • Annual consumer price inflation is expected to return to within the committee's 1 to 3 percent target range by the end of 2024.
  • Welcome decline in inflation in part reflects lower inflation for goods and services imported into New Zealand
  • Components of domestic services inflation persists
  • Wage growth and domestic spending are easing
  • Weaker capacity pressures and an easing labour market are reducing domestic inflation

Minutes:

  • Members agreed they remain confident that monetary policy is restricting demand
  • A further decline in capacity pressure is expected, supporting a continued decline in inflation
  • Committee agreed that interest rates need to remain at a restrictive level for a sustained period to ensure annual headline cpi inflation returns to the 1 to 3 percent target range
  • Committee noted that annual headline cpi inflation was expected to return to the target band in the december quarter of this year
  • Domestic inflation has fallen more slowly than expected and headline consumers price index (cpi) inflation remains above the committee’s target band
  • Committee also agreed that interest rates may have to remain at a restrictive level for longer than anticipated in the february monetary policy statement to ensure the inflation target is met
  • The committee discussed the possibility of increasing the ocr at this meeting

A more hawkish RBNZ, not only suggesting later rate cuts but even a possibility of another hike.

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RBNZ Governor Orr will hold his press conference in an hour.

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Background to this:

And, what's still to come this week from the Bank:

RBNZ

Old photo, some of these officials have moved on