I posted on the expected announcement earlier and what to watch for in the accompanying Review:
Also, earlier reviews:
- ANZ now forecast the RBNZ will hike 50bps in both July and August (previously 50 then 25)
- Poll shows the consensus for a 50bp interest rate hike from the RBNZ next week
- "Preview": Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected to raise its official cash rate 50bps
- Risk for NZD at today's RBNZ meeting is lowering of the OCR peak - Credit Agricole
A brief comment from BNZ:
- all economists surveyed predicting another 50bps hike in the OCR to 2.5% and this is fully priced by the OIS market.
- We see forward guidance broadly consistent with the May MPS, with the Bank continuing to indicate the need for further rate hikes to meet its inflation objective
KiwiBank:
- A 50bp hike in the cash rate from the RBNZ this week to 2.50% is virtually done and dusted. Inflation expectations remain elevated and the RBNZ will want to see a clear turnaround (south) before contemplating an end to the tightening cycle.
- A turnaround in inflation is likely. We have witnessed a sharp decline in consumer and business confidence. And many households are facing a sharp rise in interest expense. Demand is being cooled, by RBNZ design.
ASB:
- The RBNZ is expected to deliver a 50bps hike this Wednesday, the third in a row, taking the OCR to 2.50%.
- Following the weak consumer and business sentiment surveys over this quarter, weaker than expected Q1 GDP and equity markets at new lows, there is talk of a recession.
- Ongoing capacity pressures and the tight labour market continue to be major headwinds to already-slowing economic momentum.
- Inflation is likely more persistent than the RBNZ’s May Monetary Policy Statement’s forecast
- Continued policy tightening at present is an acknowledgement doing ‘too little, too late’ in terms of tightening is still a bigger risk than ‘too much, too soon’.
There is no scheduled press conference with RBNZ Governor Orr today.
