The results of the latest Reuters poll of analysts' outlook for the European Central Bank:
All 85 respondents predicted the ECB would leave its deposit rate at 4.00% on January 25
- 21 predict the first ECB rate cut in April
- 3 say March
- 38 say June
- 23 predict the first cut coming in Q3
In the Reuters report is this from BMO on the chorus of ECB officials pushing back against near-term rate cuts:
- "If you're hearing the ones (policymakers) that are the most talkative out there, which are the hawks ... almost all of them have been pushing against the possibility of an ECB rate cut at least in the coming months,"
- "But stranger things have happened, so I wouldn't be surprised if they do an earlier rate cut. Our view is still that they're going to go in June, so we'll stick to that in the meantime."
European Central Bank dates for 2024