Thomas Barkin Richmond Fed
- What I am hearing from people on the ground is that in the labor market, people are cutting back on hiring, but not firing.
- Job growth has settled down, but still adding jobs
- Theis is a lot more labor supply than thought a year or two ago.
- The math of that suggests unemployment rate goes up.
- What would make you more worried is if job growth started to disappear
- Wages are coming down, suggesting normalization in the labor market
- You've got some time to figure out if the economy is steadily normalizing, or do you have to lean into it
- Closing in on a set of economic numbers that look normal
The question - and maybe he will provide the answer- is with normality in the economic numbers, does it give the Fed the opportunity to normalize rates from more restrictive?
- For me the case for lowering in July, would have been either absolute conviction that the labor market was on the precipice, or if you thought you had inflation under control.
- Pretty optimistic they will forecast good inflation in the coming months
More from Barkin:
- Equity markets don't feel like there's a cataclysmic event that just happened
- Financial markets are looking not just at modal outlook but also the tails