The SNB announcement is due on Thursday at 0730 GMT.
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This in brief via Standard Chartered:
- expect SNB to hike by 100bp
Stan Chart were at +50bp but have ramped their expectation much higher. Add that this takes:
- the base rate to 0.75% from -0.25%, and out of negative territory for the first time since 2014
More:
- We believe positive currency rhetoric from the SNB and increasing hawkishness among major central banks support our larger-than-consensus rate hike forecast; most economists are predicting a 75bps hike, though markets are pricing in around an 86bps step
- Note the SNB monetary policy committee (MPC) sets rates only once every quarter; we forecast a further 50bps of hikes each at the ECB’s October and December meetings. We see a further 75bps of tightening by the SNB in December, taking the base rate to 1.5% by end-2022 (previously 0.25%), followed by a final 50bps of hikes in Q1-2023 to a terminal rate of 2.0%
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SNB Governor Jordan
