TD forecast 100 bp of rate hikes from the Bank of Canada ahead

TD are looking for more aggressive hikes from the Bank of Canada ahead, at the next two meetings:

• We look for the BoC to lift the overnight rate by 75bps at its September meeting, and again by 25bps in October

Citing:

• The combination of very strong inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term and extremely tight labour market metrics both support aggressive tightening from the BoC. A 75bp move would also be consistent with the Governor's prepared remarks from the MPR press conference, in which he argued that rates should move quickly to the top-end, or slightly above, the neutral range.

Ending at:

• We look for a terminal rate of 3.50% this cycle ... However, we caution that the balance of risks around the terminal rate skews decisively towards a higher end point for the BoC.

ps. the little * means there is a Monetary Policy Report published on this date also