TD are looking for more aggressive hikes from the Bank of Canada ahead, at the next two meetings:

  • We look for the BoC to lift the overnight rate by 75bps at its September meeting, and again by 25bps in October

Citing:

  • The combination of very strong inflation and extremely tight labour market metrics both support aggressive tightening from the BoC. A 75bp move would also be consistent with the Governor's prepared remarks from the MPR press conference, in which he argued that rates should move quickly to the top-end, or slightly above, the neutral range.

Ending at:

  • We look for a terminal rate of 3.50% this cycle ... However, we caution that the balance of risks around the terminal rate skews decisively towards a higher end point for the BoC.
boc dates 2022 28 July 2022

ps. the little * means there is a Monetary Policy Report published on this date also