If you haven't seen this, please check it out, its essential, and troubling, reading:
A note from TD also looks at the UST market, noting that dynamics there could soon see a run to 5%. Ugh.
- This week's 3s, 10s, and 30s Treasury auction series was met with weaker demand
- Such an occurrence is relatively rare, with just 11% of auction series since 2012 showing all three auctions tailing
- This afternoon's weak 30y auction (which tailed 3.7bp) also showed softening end-user demand, with dealers having to take 18% of the auction
- The recent drop in end-user demand is concerning as dealer capacity to backstop auctions remains lower due to limited balance sheet availability. With investor conviction remaining extremely low as the market is caught between still-firm domestic fundamentals and geopolitical risk, the 30y auction appears to have further destabilized sentiment.
- Treasury is likely to continue increasing auction sizes in coming months, bringing more 10y equivalent duration to market next year. We expect higher nominal and real rates to continue weighing on economic growth momentum, leading rates lower by year-end and in 2024.
- In the near-term, however, worries about a lack of demand for Treasuries could allow rates to re-test recent highs, with 10s potentially making a run at the 5% mark.
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FWIW, my 2c ... Its not the (potential) run to 5 that's the most worrying, its how long the 5 (or higher) will remain in place ...
