TD see a weaker EUR/USD thanks to the European Central Bank gradualism

TD on the European Central Bank and EUR/USD;

• ECB institutionalized dovishness wins out by essentially saying that it ‘intends to’ hike by 25 bps in July.
• The ECB did throw a bone to the hawks by opening the door to a 50 bps hike in September if high inflation is sustained.
• But, with the ECB still focusing on ‘gradualism’ and a small upgrade to 2024 inflation (to 2.1%), we do not get the sense that EUR/USD is ready to push higher, particularly with the risk of a stronger US core CPI read tomorrow (on a m/m basis)
• If Lagarde cannot sound more hawkish in the press conference, EUR/USD is at risk of returning to sub-1.07

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On that 1.07 .... TD note was immediately after the ECB meeting (me doing a catch up now) so they got that spot on. A bit late to post this is my bad.