The "adults in the room" are clueless. So maybe China is behind the rise in US long rates.

The relentless plunge in US Treasuries has left a trail of bewildered investors and analysts in its wake. Bond markets are often said to be the 'adults in the room'. Not this time.

Here is an interesting piece asking if maybe China is behind the rise in US long rates:

• Growth in China is slowing for cyclical and structural reasons
• Chinese exports to the US are lower
• As a result, China has fewer dollars to recycle into Treasuries
• In fact, China has been selling $300 billion in Treasuries since 2021, and the pace of Chinese selling has been faster in recent months,

Link is here for more:

• The bottom line is that the cost of capital will likely stay permanently higher for reasons that have little to do with the business cycle

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Higher rates, chaos in the House. Someone won't be too bothered by all this.