When will the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut come?
September? December? Its like Numberwang but with months.
A note from U.S. economist at Jefferies after Wednesday's CPI/Fedfest summed up trying to sift through Fed 'guidance':
- "Powell ... wouldn't be specific about a number of months of good data, or about specific changes in the labor market data that would start to worry them"
- "Essentially, the guidance boiled down to 'we'll know it when we see it', or to use a direct quote from today's press conference, 'it is what it is.'"
The conclusion is policy remains data dependent:
- "The data is exceedingly difficult to forecast at the moment, and the Fed lacks confidence to project a path forward for rates,"
- "The lack of specific guidance is frustrating, but also quite understandable."
