A note from UBS' America's asset allocation folks says not expect a 'standard' recession:
- the manufacturing sector has already mildly contracted and could start recovering by year-end
- the economy may instead experience rolling recessions across different segments
Factors that are pushing back a recession onset include:
- central bank monetary policy is not yet restrictive enough to cause a contraction
- fiscal policy is marginally expansionary and indeed is fuelling investment
UBS say that:
- The net result could be a very modest recession overall with unusually low job losses, an outcome very similar to a soft landing
As for timing:
- Such a recession is unlikely to start long before the end of the year
Meanwhile:
