- Rates need to rise further
- Extent of further increases depends on data
- Still uncertain how SVB failure and bank stress will impact broader credit conditions
- Mon pol will need to remain tight for 'substantial' period and longer than markets anticipate
- Q1 data continue to surprise with stronger growth
- Significant credit tightening could offset the need for rate hikes, but judgement difficult in real time
- Developments so far validate decision to hike at the last meeting
- Liquidity steps on SVB appear to have worked
- Job demand has been declining via falling job creation rather than layoffs
This isn't a big surprise from Waller because he's a hawk but it's striking how explicit he is and that he's talking about more than one hike.