Waller: The whole point of the faster taper was to make March a live meeting

Waller says that under his base case a hike in March is 'very likely'

Waller is really pushing the rate hike in March theme. He also notes that a hike could be pushed back until May.

USD/JPY has perked up through his speech and Daly's but that could be in part due to an improving risk mood. The S&P 500 is up to 4648 from a low of 4600.

Update: He says a balance sheet of around 20% of GDP is reasonable compared to 35% currently. He said that some runoff of the balance sheet could start in 'perhaps' a meeting or two after liftoff. He added that the balance sheet could shrink faster given the flow of the ONRRP facility.

Does not think it would be remotely possible for economy to be thrown into recession by three rate hikes in 2022
Expect unemployment to be as low as 3.7% by March with all the pre-pandemic jobs recovered after adjusting for retirements