Wells Fargo Investment Institute has boosted its forecast for Fed Funds, citing

  • “Our expectations for firming inflation in the second half of 2023 and sustained weakening trends in the U.S. economy lead us to revise our U.S. economic forecasts to predict somewhat higher 2023 inflation and to shift the bottom of the economic cycle to early 2024,”

Its terminal rate forecast range is now 5.5% to 5.75%

  • expects the FOMC to hike rates until disinflation “stalls too far from the Fed’s 2% goal”

Also:

  • raised its US GDP to 2.2% in 2023, compared to 1.1% forecast earlier
  • expects the economy to “struggle to avoid” a recession early in 2024, cut the 2024 GDP growth forecast to 0.7%, from 1.5% projected earlier
Jerome Powell
Fed Chair Powell