Expectations of what's to come from the European Central Bank next week and into 2024 via the most recent poll of analysts by Reuters.
- All 90 economists in the poll said the deposit rate would stay at 4.0% at the European Central Bank meeting on December 14
Expectations further out:
- eurozone economy to enter a short and shallow winter recession
- 51 of 90 predict at least one rate cut sometime before the July ECB meeting
- medians show a 25 basis point cut in each quarter of next year starting Q2, which compares with market pricing is for around 150 basis points of cuts starting in March
- these predicted 75 basis points worth of cuts from the ECB is less than that expected from the Fed (according to an earlier survey by Reuters for Fed expectations)
- Headline inflation predicted to decline over the coming quarters but still remain above the ECB's 2% target until at least 2025
