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The market was pricing in a good chance of an intermeeting rate cut earlier today but that's since cooled as markets have somewhat stabilized. We will be closely watching Japanese stocks in the session ahead, particularly banks for signs of contagion.
For now, the pricing continues to be aggressive even without any Fed validation that a 50 basis point cut that is even on the table.
- 85% chance of 50 bps at the September meeting, with the remainder at 25 bps
- 85 bps priced in for November
- 118 bps priced in for December
- 204 bps priced in for June 2025