A snippet via ING on China, analysts expecting easing in March:

  • credit growth was weak in December though that is not unusual at the end of the year.
  • Nevertheless, it is notable that the PBoC's RRR and interest rate cuts did not lead to more credit growth. This suggests that banks are being more cautious as they anticipate more bonds are likely to default.
  • If such thinking is what is driving these figures, then further easing of monetary policy may not yield higher credit growth or faster economic growth.
  • We expect another round of easing to be exercised around the Two Session meetings in March.

And, on Covid-related news

  • Covid has spread to Dalian, which houses a port for cold supply chain trade.
  • We do not believe the port has yet been affected.