BOE looming large but what's the likely outcome?

Author: Mike Paterson | Category: Education

Bank of England interest rate decision at 12.00 GMT 22 March

It's been covered a few times already but as always it's customary to throw a few thoughts into the pot despite my "trade what you see" approach so here's what I think we should be looking out for fwiw:

  • no rate hike
  • watch for vote change from 9-0 as a clue to May hike which is now largely factored in to the tune of 90%
  • inflation references ( softer data this week supporting recent BOE forecasts)
  • Brexit uncertainty references
Seems to me the world and his Mum are expecting hawkish tones and that's helped GBP over past few days. So the risk is to the downside but no press conference to soften any hawkish tones as Carney is prone to do.

I'll look to sell into any decent rally or stall with much of the rate hike talk already priced in but I would expect decent dip demand too should we fade or head lower from the off. Post-FOMC USD reaction will be fresh in traders minds.

We will, as always expect an initial algo headline-led reaction to the announcement/statement  so be ready with your entry/exit levels from whichever side you want to play.

Placing limit orders in advance can often be useful given the occasional speed of moves and subsequent reversals, although equally it can be prudent to wait and manually trigger executions once you've sized up the data in its entirety and gauged the price action.

GBPUSD currently 1.41630 with EURGBP 0.8701 on session lows. GBPJPY bouncing off session lows.

Order boards here and here. Option expiry interest potentially in play too.

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