A much stronger dollar and a big decline in commodity prices greet New York traders as they return to their desks after a long weekend. Gustav did not pack as fearsome a punch as expected and oil prices have resumed their slide with renewed vigor as a result. A wise man warned such an outcome was possible.

Stocks look set to rally strongly in early US trade but ISM could take away the punchbowl if it is weaker than expected. Bloomberg’s survey is 50.0 on the nose.