Does the ADP report really tell us anything
If someone were to ask me two of the great secular trends in the US economy, I'd probably answer:
- A shift to part-time/temporary workers
- Shopping online
When you combine them, it adds up to a temporary surge in December hiring ahead of Christmas. There is always a surge in temporary holidays shopping but it's getting especially acute and that's why it's not flushed out of the data by seasonal adjustments.
So the strong December ADP report may be more of a sign of changing habits than a strengthening economy. After all, the latest report is the strongest one since... last December.
This is the secular trends.
