February report to be released at 8:30 AM ET
The February employment report will be released at 8;30 AM tomorrow with expectations for NFP to rise by 195K. Last month the rise as a lower than expected 151K. The Unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.9%. The average hourly earning are expected to rise by 0.2% vs 0.5% last month.
The expectations are that the report is not likely to change sentiment for a change in policy at the next FOMC meeting. However, it could change the markets perception of rate changes for the year. The market is skeptical of the 4 rate projections from the Fed in 2016.
Below is a look at the major trends in employment. Last month, the change in non farm payroll disappointed. However the Unemployment rate and hourly earnings took some of the sting out of the jobs shortfall. The ADP estimate for Service employment came in at 213.8K. However, the last two months have shown that the ADP overstated the Private sector results by around 35K each month. Will it overstate again? The ISM Employment reports for Manufacturing and Service were both below 50. The dip below 50 was the first since Feb 2014. Initial employment claims meanwhile dipped lower over the last month.
So overall, there are some good and bad not only from last month's data, but also the other employment statistics that are independent to the Labor departments figures.
