EUR/USD strategy from BTMU
TMU Research discusses EUR/USD outlook, and notes that the USD sell off has been relentless since the middle of last month, and there appears no clear catalyst on the horizon to turn the tide in the near-term.
"Under current circumstances, there is a building risk that US dollar weakness could even begin to overshoot fundamentals in the near-term.
A repeat of price action from back in early 2004 can't be completely ruled out. After breaking back above the 1.2000 level late in 2003, the euro continued to strengthen sharply against the US dollar towards the 1.3000 level in the opening months of 2004 before settling back into the 1.2000 to 1.2500 range, which is around where we currently estimate long-term fair value for the pair," BTMU notes.
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