The October 2021 US employment report from ADP.
- prior report 568K revised to 523K
- Small business 115 K
- Mid sized. 114 K
- Large. 342K
- Goods producing +113 K
- service producing +458K
looking at some of the components
- leisure and hospitality +185K
- Manufacturing +53K
- professional/business services +88K
- trade/transportation/utilities +78K
- education/health services +56K
- construction +54K
- natural resources and mining plus 6K
- financial activity plus 15K
- information plus 14K
The US nonfarm payroll estimate is expected at 455K on Friday. The ADP has had a poor track record of predicting nonfarm payrolls. Last month estimate of 568K (revised to 523K) was still higher than the BLS report of 194K.
Pre-pandemic, the ADP report was within 65K of the BLS report. During the pandemic the margin of error surge to 774K. The year to date deviations is down to 266K but still quite a ways from the BLS estimate.
Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP said:
"The labor market showed renewed momentum last month, with a jump from the third quarter average of 385,000 monthly jobs added, marking nearly 5 million job gains this year. Service sector providers led the increase and the goods sector gains were broad based, reporting the strongest reading of the year. Large companies fueled the stronger recovery in October, marking the second straight month of impressive growth.,"
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said,
"The job market is revving back up as the Deltawave of the pandemic winds down. Job gains are accelerating across all industries, and especially among large companies. As long as the pandemic remains contained, more big job gains are likely in coming months."
For the full report, click here
