Seasonally adjusted results:

January: -E3.3 billion

MNI survey median: -E3.7 billion
MNI survey range: -E3.9 bln to -E2.8 bln

(Including Estonia):

December: -E1.1 bln (revised from -E2.3 bln)
November: -E2.0 bln (revised from -E3.2 bln)
October: +E3.7 bln (revised from +E3.1 bln)
September: +E1.9 bln (revised from +E1.4 bln)
August: -E1.5 bln (revised from -E2.4 bln)

Non-seasonally adjusted results:

January: -E14.8 billion

(Including Estonia):

December: -E0.5 bln (unrevised)
November: -E1.7 bln (revised from -E1.5 bln)
October: +E4.6 bln (revised from +E4.7 bln)
September: +E2.5 bln (revised from +E2.6 bln)
August: -E5.2 bln (revised from -E5.1 bln)
—

PARIS (MNI) – The Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted trade deficit in
January was smaller than generally expected and the balances for
previous months were revised markedly higher, Eurostat said Friday.

Adjusted imports bounced back faster than exports in January,
rising 5.3% after a 0.9% decline in December. Exports rebounded 3.6% on
the month to a record high after a 0.2% dip. Compared to 4Q averages,
imports in January were up 6.3%, while exports were up 3.6%.

The adjusted trade deficit thus widened by E2.2 billion to E3.3
billion in January, the largest in two years.

In unadjusted terms, the trade deficit spiked to E14.8 billion from
-E500 million in December and -E9.7 billion a year earlier. Unadjusted
imports rose 3.3% on the month, while exports plunged 7.4%.

(The inclusion of the Estonia in the unadjusted data for 2010
largely explains the modest downward revisions in the trade balances, a
Eurostat expert explained.)

Imports increased 22% last year, outpacing export growth of 20%.

Rising commodity prices were largely behind the swing in last
year’s trade balance to a deficit of E200 million from a surplus of
E15.8 billion in 2009. The energy deficit alone widened by close to E50
billion and the shortfall for raw materials added nearly E15 billion.
This outweighed increases in the surpluses for manufactured goods and
food and drinks of more than E36 billion and nearly E6 billion,
respectively.

These trends suggest that if commodity prices continue to climb,
the Eurozone may be entering an extended period of trade deficits,
despite the growing demand of emerging economies for investment and
upscale consumer goods.

The February PMI poll showed Eurozone manufacturing exports rising
at the fastest pace in almost a year, with record or near-record growth
rates in several countries. Only Greece posted a decline. The ongoing
improvement in export orders seen in the European Commission’s business
survey suggests the trend will continue in the near term.

The natural disasters in Japan are likely to weigh on the country’s
imports and exports, while sustaining high oil prices. For Eurozone
competitors, this could bring some relief but could also disrupt
supplies for domestic producers.

French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde warned Friday that it may
be difficult to find substitutes for some components produced in Japan
for assembly around the world, notably for high-tech products. Domestic
auto production has been completely shut down, she noted.

“Thus some direct fallout for Japan and indirectly for other
economies will be unavoidable,” Lagarde said in a radio interview.

Still, since Japan buys less than 3% of Eurozone exports and
provides less than 4% of its imports, the impact should remain fairly
limited, even if its extends beyond bilateral trade flows.

–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; e-mail: stephen@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$XDS$]