Seasonally adjusted results:

July: -E0.2 billion

MNI survey median: -E1.2 billion
MNI survey range: -E2.5 bln to +E5.0 bln

June: -E1.4 bln (revised from -E1.6 bln)
May: -E2.6 bln (revised from -E2.7 bln)
April: +E0.2 bln (revised from +E0.0 bln)
March: +E0.3 bln (revised from +E0.1 bln)
February: +E2.5 bln (revised from +E2.3 bln)

Non-seasonally adjusted results:

July: +E6.7 billion
June: +E2.2 bln (revised from +E2.4 bln)
May: -E3.5 bln (revised from -E3.3 bln)
April: +E0.2 bln (revised from +E0.3 bln)
March: +E4.0 bln (revised from +E3.9 bln)
February: +E2.0 bln (revised from +E1.8 bln)
—

FRANKFURT (MNI) – The Eurozone’s trade deficit shrank more than
generally expected in July, with the decline in imports outpacing that
of exports, while June’s trade balance was revised upwards, Eurostat
reported on Thursday.

Exports totaled a seasonally-adjusted E130.2 billion in July, down
0.6% compared to June, but 3.5% above 2Q’s average level, while imports
fell 1.5% on the month to E130.4 billion, up 2.7% from the second
quarter.

As a result, the trade deficit came to E200 million after a
shortfall of E1.4 billion in June. Without adjusting for seasonal
trends, the trade balance grew to +E6.7 billion from June’s downwardly
revised +E2.2-billion level.

Citing its most recent manufacturing purchasing managers index
(PMI), Markit Economics reported that new export orders gained further
ground in August, the thirteenth consecutive monthly increase. All of
the nations covered in the PMI showed expanding foreign demand,
including Greece, which posted an increase for the first time since
September 2009.

However, the overall increase in foreign demand continued to
weaken, easing to its slowest pace since January, “which may lead to a
slower growth profile at Eurozone manufacturers in the coming months,”
Markit senior economist Rob Dobson said.

A recent European Commission poll showed improvements in both
overall order books and export order books, with assessments of the
latter rising above average to the highest level in two years. Firms
cited by the Commission also reported that export volume expectations
continued to climb in the third quarter to the highest level since 1Q
2008.

First estimates for Eurozone 2Q GDP showed that net trade added 0.1
percentage point to overall activity after slicing a half point from it
in the first quarter. Taken together, the Commission and PMI reports
suggest that, while trade should continue lifting the economy in the
near term, the boost may soon wane.

Recent comments from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet gave voice
to such concerns, warning that “some uncertainty about growth prospects
in other advanced economies and at the global level,” along with
remaining concerns due to the renewed financial market tensions,
represent downside risks to the central bank’s staff forecasts for the
Eurozone economy.

An above-average proportion of German manufacturers surveyed in
August continue to see exports trending upwards in the near term,
according to the Ifo institute. However, that proportion has fallen
steadily since the peak in May, leaving Ifo’s sub-index at its lowest
level since the start of the year.

Conversely, French manufacturers upwardly revised their export
order books yet again, the national statistical office, INSEE, reported.
Still, their assessment remains well below the norm.

Italian manufacturers’ export assessment also improved, reaching
its highest level in two years, the most recent ISAE survey showed.

— Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; e-mail: frankfurt@marketnews.com —

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$XDS$]